The-Season-So-Far Awards:
Fantasy Surprise MVP: Chris Paul
- Chris Paul has absolutely been a monster. I'm a fan of Deron Williams, but there is no doubt that Paul is dominating when it counts. He might be an injury risk, but boy, are the rewards worth the risk. Ranked Top 10-15 in the preseason, Paul is #1 in season averages rank, and #2 in season totals (next to Shawn Marion).
Runner Up: 2-way tie - Caron Butler, Carlos Boozer
- Caron Butler has definitely stepped up his game with Gilbert Arenas' on the shelf. While the other member of the Wizards' Big Three, Antawn Jamison, has put up decent numbers, Butler is the one who has stepped up his game, translating to wins for the Wizards and his fantasy owners. He went on a tear from downtown two weeks ago, and looks confident in shooting the three, which was the main knock on his fantasy game. He's ranked #6 in season totals and #7 in season averages, and is showing no signs of letting up.
- Carlos Boozer is like a machine! Ranked #3 in season totals and #6 in season averages, the only category where he'll "hurt" you is blocks, because he doesn't have many of those (Kobe has the same number of blocks in the season), and turnovers, but those are forgivable. Boozer shoots at a high clip from the field and the charity stripe, nets you tons of points and rebounds, and passes well for a big man.
Also Rans, but Not Quite:
- Shawn Marion - monster game, although he's a safe pick - that's why I called it the "surprise MVP" - besides, Marion is #1 in season totals, but Chris Paul is at #2, and Paul is #1 in season averages rank. His FT% (.690) is a bit uncharacteristic, although he still is tied with Marcus Camby with the lowest TOs (1.3) among the top 10 fantasy players (based on season averages rank).
- Josh Smith - FG% still inconsistent, and would be nice if he could cut down on TOs
- Kevin Garnett - stats have been diminishing, along with playing time, in the wake of blowouts
- Kobe Bryant - owners could do with less turnovers, but otherwise a solid statline from the Black Mamba
- LeBron James - that week-long injury hurt his owners
- Marcus Camby - roto monster owners hope he can last 70+ games
- Baron Davis - love him as long as he's healthy, like Camby, owners will hope he'll last 70+ games
- Steve Nash, Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire - not quite as excellent as my picks, but a really close call
Most Overrated: Kevin Durant
Runners Up: Brandon Roy, Joe Johnson, Kevin Durant, Tyson Chandler, Ben Gordon, Zach Randolph, Rajon Rondo, Al Jefferson, Chris Bosh, (Dwight Howard)
- Brandon Roy, JJ, and Durant have all been not performing up to their preseason estimated ranks. Same goes for Tyson Chandler (averaging a double-double), Zach Randolph, and Rajon Rondo. The thing is, they were highly touted going into the season, and while producing decent stats, are not quite near expectations for them. The only thing you can count on them is to deliver solid numbers, and explode with monster games every once in a while. Rookie Kevin Durant is the worst of the lot, with horrendous FG% and lots of turnovers - it's rookie woes, I understand, but a lot of people did pick him quite early, and they were probably sorely disappointed.
- As for Al Jefferson - man, that guy is a beast. But he said it himself when he declined to take a max contract extension - he's still not a max player. Likewise, in fantasy, even if he nets you solid points, rebounds and a decent FG% and FT% with some blocks, a lot of owners still overestimate his capabilities. If you drafted him in the 1st to 2nd rounds, I'd say you were stretching a bit. Around 3rd to 5th would be fair value though.
- Chris Bosh hasn't bounced back from the great season he had last year. Nagging injuries have also created the separation between expectations and production for the main man in Toronto.
-Big Al and Zach "Z-Bo" Randolph are probably the best of these players, providing owners with pretty consistent stats, but who still could do better.
Most Underrated: Hedo Turkoglu
Runners Up: Carlos Boozer, Chris Kaman, Jason Terry, Allen Iverson, (Dwight Howard)
- Hedo Turkoglu looked to be relegated to 6th man with the acquisition of Rashard Lewis, but with the injuries to Orlando's frontcourt and Lewis playing some PF, Turk has put up some great fantasy numbers, averaging 18.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, a nice 4.2 assists, and over 2 treys per game. He also hasn't had a single-digit scoring game so far in the season. If you picked him late, you should be reaping the rewards on your team.
- Carlos Boozer was so lowly ranked (top 20-30 only in the Yahoo game, with an Average Draft Position in the 2.8th round in the Y! game), but has put up MVP-worthy stats (read: top 5 fantasy value) in the Utah system. Look for him to continue his production. I traded him away last season, when I thought early on that his stellar production was a fluke - but he really hasn't looked back from last season's great stats.
- I knew that Chris "The Kaveman" Kaman had skills, and the injury to Elton Brand proved to be the best thing that happened to his career. He's putting up monster center stats, and wasn't even in the projected top 30 from the preseason.
- Jason Terry might be the sixth man in Dallas, but he still has excellent fantasy stats.
- Allen Iverson proved that co-existing with Melo doesn't mean a dip in fantasy value (helped by the PG injury woes of Denver, of course). Even with Anthony Carter back however, Iverson is still putting up great numbers.
- You might wonder why my man Dwight Howard is on both the "most overrated" and "most underrated." It's like this: coming into the season, everyone was thinking that he would have atrocious FT% and turnovers, and that he would not be worth a high pick. However, during the season so far, despite fulfilling the low FT%, high TO projections, Dwight has also been a monster in points, rebounds, and FG%, with decent blocks as well.
Would you want the Beast of the East on your team? Yes, but only if you've properly prepared for it, and built your team based on his capabilities. Teams in head-to-head leagues can use Dwight better than teams in roto leagues, unless you're okay with a 1 or 2 point standing in FT%.
- Note: Baron Davis wasn't included in the "most underrated" because we all know he's going to produce when healthy. He's a high risk-high reward pick, so there.
Best FA Pick Ups: Travis Outlaw, Jose Calderon, Grant Hill, Ronnie Brewer, Kurt Thomas
You may not know the faces of some of them, but these guys may have changed the fortunes of many a fantasy team.
With the exception of Hill, none of them are having their productivity ticking away on a timer. With the injury to TJ Ford, Calderon is even more valuable now. Ronnie Brewer's minutes haven't diminished even with Utah's other SGs back (his production has dipped slightly, but still a solid overall line). Kurt Thomas is providing consistently solid stats for a young Sonics team which a lot thought would play Collison and Wilcox over him - so far, he has matched the production or even outplayed both in limited minutes. And Travis Outlaw is the Blazers' 6th man, but he is quite consistent, and is quite valuable in deeper leagues.
What's Up With You?
- Dirk Nowitzki, Gerald Wallace, Pau Gasol
Time To Step Up!
- Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, Dwyane Wade
- Most of these players were highly touted to be fantasy beasts, and as an example: Dirk Nowitzki ranked 4th overall in the Yahoo! game preseason - he's only number 24 in the season average rank, and 14 in the season totals rank. Dirk, G-Force and Gasol owners will have to hope that these stars will turn it around and live up to their draft positions. As for Wade and the others, their stats aren't atrocious, but could be a lot better. Wade and the Bulls' Hinrich and Deng, in particular, have only recently showed signs of fantasy greatness, although Wade's turnovers are still too much for me to take.
Draft Busts and Victims of Circumstance
- Nenad Krstic, Walter Hermann, Delonte West, David Lee, Mehmet Okur, Jason Richardson, Al Harrington, Jermaine O'Neal
- Injuries, coaching styles, and other factors have also negatively affected these players' fantasy values, and owners can at best hope for good health and an improvement in their playing situation, especially if they can't get decent value in a trade. Krstic, Hermann and West, in particular, may be considered droppable.
Faker of the Season-so-far: Andrea Bargnani
- After showing signs of fantasy relevance early in the season, Bargnani has faded into fantasy obscurity just this December (he had a pretty decent November) because of injuries and the DNP-CD. His owners wish that Bargnani returning to productivity is not just a false hope, and I'm only glad the Bargnani owners I offered trades to early in the season rejected my offers soundly.
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